Who we are
EV Trading is Nic and Phil. We met on a quantitative trading internship at a market-making firm, where the job was pricing trades slightly better than the other side. Sports betting markets looked less efficient than the ones we worked on, so we built the model behind this ledger.
Surnames aren't up yet; the ledger doesn't need them to be checkable. The record is what there is to judge.
Team
The two of us
Nic
My background is in quantitative finance, and Phil and I met during a quantitative trading internship. What I care about on this project is validation rather than ideas: sourcing the data, building the warehouse it lives in, and making sure every number the model uses has a traceable origin. The platform will not ship a constant nobody can justify, and it will not adopt a feature until that feature has beaten a pre-registered test on seasons it has never seen. Much of what we have built is a written record of ideas that did not survive those tests. Knowing precisely what fails is most of knowing what to trust.
Phil
My background is in mathematics and I've always enjoyed quantitative problems and game-theoretic thinking. My interest in modelling the sports-betting market stems from that. Our approach to modelling is to develop logical frameworks able to quantify every detail. To believe an idea is to assume the framework is itself accurate, hence, we see a large part of design and testing driven solely by logic rather than brute force and computation. We design our systems to produce positive expected value with close to no optimisation of parameters in order to generalise, and in-depth understanding of every game factor.
What EV Trading is not
We are not a bookmaker. We never accept, place or hold bets, we can't take deposits, and nothing here is financial advice. We sell analysis: our opinion of a price, published before the game and settled in public afterwards.
Why sell it, if it works
These are shallow markets and stake sizes cap out fast, so a subscription is worth more than the marginal bet the model can't place. If that leaves you sceptical, the record page is the answer.
How we're paid
No bookmaker pays us anything, no affiliate links, no referral bonuses, no sign-up codes. Subscriptions are the whole business.
Contact: [email protected]. Replies can take a day on game days.
Get a look at the tips
Join our Discord and say hi. Nic or Phil will give you a look at how the tips land.